Will AI Replace
Truck Drivers?
Partially, AI will replace approximately 35-40% of truck driving positions by 2030, primarily in long-haul highway segments, while local, specialty, and complex driving scenarios will continue requiring human drivers
The Path to AI Replacement
Pilot Programs and Limited Deployment
Companies like TuSimple, Kodiak Robotics, and Aurora conduct successful driverless runs on specific routes. Bot Auto schedules continuous driverless commercial freight operations in 2025, while first Tesla Semi high-volume production builds begin in late 2025.
Hub-to-Hub Autonomous Operations
Autonomous trucks begin regular operations on highway corridors between transportation hubs, with human drivers handling the first and last mile. Industry begins adopting 'driver-out' operations on select routes.
Expanded Network and Integration
Autonomous trucking networks expand significantly. Up to 35% of tractor trucks in North America become automated. Human drivers still required for complex urban environments, adverse weather conditions, and specialized cargo.
Mature Ecosystem
Autonomous trucks become standard for interstate shipping with nearly 1.2 million autonomous trucks and buses deployed annually. Job transformation rather than elimination occurs with new roles in monitoring and managing autonomous fleets.
Watch More
The First Semi-Truck 'Driver-Out Pilot' Program | TuSimple
Will AI Replace Truck Drivers?
Tools replacing Truck Drivers
Aurora Driver
An autonomous driving system currently hauling customer loads in Texas, using proprietary FirstLight lidar technology that can see over 450 meters ahead.
Tesla Semi
All-electric Class 8 truck with autonomous capabilities, with high-volume production beginning in 2025 and ramping up in 2026. Expected to produce 50,000 units annually.
TuSimple Autonomous Driving System
Completed the world's first fully autonomous semi-truck ride on open public roads without a human in 2021, traveling 80 miles through traffic.
Kodiak Driver
Autonomous driving technology that completed its first driverless delivery of frac sand in Texas's Permian Basin in May 2024.
Bot Auto
Planning continuous driverless commercial freight operations in 2025, including a minimum four-month pilot program of regular driverless runs between Houston and San Antonio.
Join the Discussion
Do you think AI will take over truck driving in the future?
AI will definitely one day do the majority of tasks, but you likely won't see a majority of manual labor done by it in your lifetime. I could definitely see AI doing long distance travel with drivers doing the local stuff in the next 20 years.
Will Automation Take Over The Trucking Industry?
Over the next ten years, self-driving trucks may replace 1.7 million truck drivers in the United States, according to the Los Angeles Times. Millions of people work in non-driving capacities for the trucking business.